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Serial Do Controle De Tempo Para Lan House 3.5.2.epub
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Data Availability. All data used in this study are publicly available. The first part of the serial interval measurement is based on official reports from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention of China, which are published in Chinese daily newspapers and accessible to all. The raw data on the number of identified cases, type of cases, gender, age, occupation, address, date of onset, date of hospital admission and case outcome can be downloaded from the official website of the National Health Commission of the Peoples Republic of China (https://ncas.nhc.gov.cn/). The second part of the serial interval measurement is based on reports from SARS-CoV-2, which are accessible at three central data-bases: the Chinese National Health Commission (see above), the China CDC (https://ncas.chinacdc.cn/sars-ncas) and the CDC of the United States (https://ncas.cdc.gov/data-sites/sars-ncas/).
We estimated the serial interval and infectiousness profile (a detailed method is provided in the Supplementary Note) based on our data and the published literature. For each individual, we assumed the interval between symptom onset of the case and the index date as the serial interval and, for each transmission pair, the exposure window as the duration between the exposure and index date. All cases reported in mainland China were assumed to be infected by index cases, so that their serial intervals were estimated from known exposure times. Susceptible individuals with unknown exposure times were excluded from the analysis. We calculated the probability of each transmission pair to be presymptomatic or have a positive probability of having a presymptomatic transmission using the estimated serial interval. We estimated the expected number of transmission pairs of presymptomatic transmission within a given serial interval. Based on the known median incubation period in previous studies, we further estimated the median serial interval of COVID-19 to be 5.2 days. Given that, on average, a single infection would lead to a subsequent infection event after 5.2 days, we estimated the median incubation period to be about 5.2 days based on the assumption that each transmission pair would be separated by an incubation period of 5.2 days. 3d9ccd7d82
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